Everyone who plays in NFL Week 18 has some sort of motivation. For some, it's about making the playoffs or ruining a rival team's chances of getting there. For others, it's about finishing a contract year strong or trying to avoid being let go in the offseason. But for many, the biggest motivator is money. Today we'll highlight five players in the running for big bonuses via player incentives, and we'll recommend which player props you should lock in ahead of Sunday's slate.
Most sports fans and bettors have heard of player incentives. These are essentially performance-based contractual bonuses that benefit both the player and the franchise. They also benefit savvy bettors because we know that guys who are aiming for a certain stat line will do whatever they can to achieve that goal.
Our betting goals are similar to those of players: to win and make a lot of money at the same time. OUR Best bets of week 18 And best accessories have already started off with a bang – let's keep the gravy rolling and reveal our five favorite prop bets associated with player incentives that we expect to hit this week. Good luck, have fun and enjoy the last week of the regular season!
NFL Week 18 Player Incentives: Five Bets to Lock In Today
Jordan Love, QB, Packers: $500,000 bonus if Green Bay makes playoffs
Love has quietly been one of the most reliable QBs in the NFC this season, and the Packers control their own destiny. A win and they are in a loss and they drop to a 16 percent probability of succeeding. What many fans don't realize until the final day of the regular season is that Love also gets a half-million dollar bonus if Green Bay clinches a playoff spot.
Look for Lambeau's successor to Aaron Rodgers to take full advantage of a beatable Bears defense, against which he racked up three touchdowns en route to a 38-20 victory in Week 1. Everyone overlooked how much Love was special in his first full match. year as a starter, but we were attentive. The guy has a TD:INT ratio of 16 to 1 over the last six games for the Pack!
The last above-average pocket passer Chicago faced, Joe Flacco, threw for 374 yards and two touchdowns on the Bears. Matt Eberflus' defense has looked vastly improved since the trade deadline — mostly thanks to his sudden ability to rush the passer with Montez Sweat — but Love has actually performed well under pressure over the past couple of months.
We believe in Love! Over Green Bay's last eight games, the third-year QB has totaled 265.4 passing yards per game. And he finally has a running game again, with Aaron Jones healthy and coming off back-to-back games with 130-plus yards from scrimmage. Since December 2018, the Packers are 21-1 when Jones gets more than 20 touches in a game. Justin Fields is a worthy opponent in Week 18, but our confidence couldn't be higher in a motivated Love with his eyes on the prize.
RECOMMENDED BET: Packers -2.5 (-125) – this way you get basket coverage and avoid heavy juice on the Green Bay moneyline (-150).
MORE BETS ON WEEK 18: Against the spread | Money line | The best accessories
Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers: $2 million in incentives coming
Mayfield has found a home in Tampa Bay in his sixth season, and he could win some Comeback Player of the Year votes. The 28-year-old is 8-8 for a playoff spot with a Week 18 win over the lowly Panthers. Tampa can also clinch a spot in the event of a tie Or if the Saints lose to the Falcons at home today. We like Mayfield to control his own destiny, take the Bucs to the playoffs and maximize his incentive bonuses.
And boy, oh my goodness, those are huge bonuses. Mayfield will receive a $1 million raise for playing more than 85 percent of Tampa's offensive snaps this season (he's played more than 99 percent of the Bucs' snaps thus far). He will also receive an additional $1 million if he leads Todd Bowles' team to the playoffs. Those are two of the easiest checkmarks we can imagine, considering Carolina has won two of 16 games and ranks in the bottom three in the NFL in points, yards and defense. Go cook, Baker!
RECOMMENDED BETTINGS: Buccaneers -3 (-145) This seems to be the best piece. We would also have no reservations betting on Mayfield at plus odds to throw two TDs. (OVER 1.5, +115). A two TD day with no interceptions would give the veteran a 30 TD and 10 INT season and force his name into the Comeback Player of the Year conversation.
MORE: Damar Hamlin no longer a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans: $1.25M bonus on the line
The veteran Hopkins could total a $1 million bonus if he reaches 1,050 receiving yards, a goal he would achieve with just 39 yards against the Jaguars today. He also needs seven more catches to reach 75 this season, which would help him collect a total receiving bonus of $500,000 on the season.
The Titans gave their prized offseason acquisition a tiered incentive system ahead of this season, with each tier increasing his bonus by $25,000. Take a look at the incentives by tier below:
Captures (currently at 68)
65: $250,000
75: $500,000
85: $750,000
95: 1 million dollars
Reception sites (currently at 1,011)
750: $250,000
850: $500,000
950: $750,000
1,050: $1 million
Touchdowns (currently at six)
4: $250,000
6: $500,000
8: $750,000
10: 1 million dollars
So basically he needs 39 yards to max out his receiving yard bonus and seven catches to reach half a million dollars in this market. He already got $1 million in bonuses, but now he can add $500,000 to that total. And we have no reason to believe that Mike Vrabel will suddenly rest his star in the final game of the season – Tennessee was out of the playoffs for a while, and yet Nuk caught 7 of 7 targets for 72 yards last week. .
The 5-11 Titans have had a rough year with injuries and inconsistent defensive play, but at least they have a stud receiver in Hopkins. They'll want to keep him happy this offseason to avoid him retiring or requesting a trade before the second half of his two-year contract. We fully expect DHop to show up and show out in Week 18 against a Jaguars secondary that has been a turnstile all season, allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (245.3 ). Return of a very motivated Nuk to bring the juice home.
RECOMMENDED BETTINGS: Bet Hopkins MORE THAN 63.5 receiving yards (-125) – and perhaps even its longest receiving accessory OVER 22.5 meters (-115). The three-time All-Pro will be all over the field today against a weak Jacksonville defense.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings: $650,000 with a big day
The Vikings running back currently has 676 rushing yards, which is 125 shy of 800 and the $650,000 bonus that would come with that threshold. Minnesota has an outside chance of making the playoffs with a win, but the Vikings play the Lions this weekend, so we don't see a ground approach with Mattison working in favor of Kevin O' team Connell.
Mattison failed to record a 100-yard rushing day all season, and things only got uglier down the stretch. He finished with just 17 yards rushing last week against a disappointing Packers defense and had -2 yards two weeks ago against the same Lions Minnesota will face this afternoon. We don't really care what Mattison's over/under is before the match starts – we wouldn't bet his OVER with your money.
RECOMMENDED BET: Fade Mattison and bet his rushing yards UNDER wherever you can find him posted. He's not currently listed on SIA because they probably don't want to take on responsibility with such a volatile player, but check back around 1:00 p.m. to see if they add anything related to Mattison.
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs: $1.25 million raise with just one sack
Jones entered the season awaiting a contract extension, something Kansas City quickly realized it would need to resolve for the Chiefs to have a chance at defending their championship. He ends the season looking for his 10th sack and the $1.25 million bonus that comes with that number. He has 9.5 heading into this afternoon's game against Easton Stick and the Chargers, so even half a sack would put Jones in the money.
Stick has started three games and been sacked 11 times since Justin Herbert broke a finger on his throwing hand, so we'd bet on Jones to record at least one sack wherever we could find such action (props from bag are not currently on Sports Interaction but you could probably find them on other books between now and the Chiefs kickoff at 4:25 p.m.).
RECOMMENDED BET: Bet Jones to record more than one sack up to -190. SIA does not yet have any bag accessories, but that could change as game time approaches in the 4:00 p.m. window.