Bad news first: thanks to the damage inflicted on the Hollywood production apparatus during the six months of a combined strike of actors and screenwriters, the film industry is looking at a domestic box office in 2024 which, according to analysts estimates , will probably reach around $8 billion.
That's about $1 billion less than ticket sales generated last year in the U.S. and Canada, for a projected decline of 11%.
This pessimistic assessment could prove premature. After all, no one expected “Barbie” or “Oppenheimer” to cause a chain reaction on social media, and no one expected the wild cards from “Sound of Freedom,” “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” and “Renaissance: A Film”. by Beyoncé” which is added to the list of prizes of the cinema industry.
But there is at least one factor that we are sure will weigh on theater activity over the next 52 weeks. A significant number of films that would have grossed large sums of money have been excluded from this year's schedule, including “Captain America: Brave New World,” the upcoming “Mission: Impossible” and “Spider-Man: Beyond the Spiderman”. Verse.”
This is why the studios didn't do it Really want their quagmire of work to drag on longer than before, despite the ever-present hype about all the money saved by not producing anything.
That said, there's good reason for moviegoers to dial down the sense of dread these numbers might inspire, as there are some highly anticipated films in store, including Denis Villeneuve's “Dune: Part Two,” “Challengers” by Luca Guadagnino (both transplanted from 2023). ), “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” by George Miller and “Joker: Folie à Deux” by Todd Phillips.
Fans may be relieved that Disney and Marvel will have more time to work on “Brave New World” and that Warner Bros. The James Gunn-led reboot of the DC universe won't begin until next year with “Superman: Legacy.” This comes after a superhero car crash that led to disappointments including “The Marvels,” “The Flash,” “Blue Beetle” and “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.”
Plus, there are surely films that were overlooked or didn't make it into our IP-powered box office prediction algorithm (if only the Times had such a thing).
Last year's box office (up 21% from the previous year, but down 22% from pre-pandemic levels, according to Comscore data) provided some measure of hope to moviegoers, and not just because of the number of non-sequels at the top of the charts, like my colleagues J. Clara Chan and Christi Caras reported.
Having a diverse mix of genres and films aimed at multiple audiences (animation, comedy, action and the ever-reliable horror) remains a winning strategy for studios.
Films that could have been labeled “niche, including “The Boy and the Heron” by Hayao Miyazaki and “Godzilla Minus One” by Toho (two ambitious films from Japan) found their audience, bringing in $36.8 million and $46.2 million respectively in the States -United States and Canada. Both were highly regarded and marketed well by companies who understood the target market.
Even the vaunted specialty market showed some life, with Alexander Payne's winning comedy-drama, “The Holdovers” (starring Paul Giamatti, Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Dominic Sessa), grossing an estimated $18 million. dollars at the national level. Not a blockbuster like “Sideways,” of course (2004 was a different era), but solid for an emotionally astute and relatively sedate Focus Features release. The title is already available, somewhat shockingly, on the streaming service Peacock, following its expanded theatrical release last November.
Some musicals ended the year well, perhaps despite the perceived apprehensions of studio marketing departmentswith a release scheduled for the holidays “Wonka” which grossed $140 million and “The Color Purple” which has grossed $47 million so far. Clearly, audiences don't have a widespread aversion to people singing on screen.
Either way, all of this belies the oft-repeated canard that originality is dead and Hollywood only makes sequels, remakes, and toy movies. This is certainly the case a lot of these things, and it won't stop, but there are still other types of films, even if it has become more difficult. Does anyone seriously look at last year's list of films (“Past Lives”, “Talk to Me”, “Killers of the Flower Moon”, “Poor Things”) and come away with the impression that 2023 was a year poor year for cinema?
A film industry that focuses solely on swinging would certainly be boring, whether you're a filmmaker, executive, viewer, or journalist. The available evidence shows that things are not yet moving in this direction.
Our annual leadership roundtable is here!
Strikes, streaming and AI: Hollywood executives debate the issues that defined a wild 2023. The Times spoke with Nicole Brown of TriStar Pictures; Sam Register of Warner Bros. Animation; Jonathan Glickman of Panoramic Media Co.; Roy Lee of Vertigo Entertainment; Chris Hart of United Talent Agency; and FredAnthony Smith of SMAC Entertainment.
More things we wrote
Who would lend millions to Hunter Biden? Meet the Hollywood lawyer who. How wealthy Hollywood lawyer Kevin Morris teamed up with Hunter Biden to help the president's son deal with his legal and personal problems.
Why Netflix is turning 'Yu Yu Hakusho,' 'One Piece,' and other manga series into live-action series. As it seeks to grow its global audience, Netflix has released more than 10 television and film adaptations based on popular Japanese manga or anime over the past five years.
Labor unrest defined Hollywood in 2023. Here's what we learned from the two strikes. Hollywood's year of strikes is coming to an end, but is a new one about to begin? Industry members reflect on the entertainment labor movement.
The Willie Screaming Boat? Mickey Mouse horror films go into hiding as cartoon enters public domain. At least two Mickey Mouse-inspired horror films have been announced.
Finally …
One of my New Year's resolutions is to create an ongoing reading list for writing and editing. Please send your suggestions to ryan.faughnder@latimes.com. I tend to lean towards atmospheric instrumental rock and movie soundtracks, but I'll also accept your weird EDM.